Holding Pattern


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Good trading all.

Steve Chapman, TRI

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13 comments on Holding Pattern

  1. diverlee
    April 1, 2014 at 6:18 AM (3 years ago)

    Thoughts on how much rope we want to give these guys?

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 7:07 AM (3 years ago)

      You do not have to keep holding if you don’t want to, just after 10 of 12 down days and 5 consecutive down days the odds of a quick 38.2% retracement of this move down increase dramatically even if the next big move is then down again. This is not a long-term position trade, and obviously the bears are showing who is back in control to support our long-term outlook.

  2. kewl2
    April 1, 2014 at 7:10 AM (3 years ago)

    Steve — is $1279.20 an important support line? POG briefly broke below same and am wondering if it represents an important stop run level? COT reporting period also ends at 2:30EST today (assuming that filing a report makes any difference to the commercial banks). Perhaps one of the above will break this pattern……..

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 7:14 AM (3 years ago)

      Yes, there was a big stop run last night and the move down in GLD today has just been testing that low.

  3. Dutchisu
    April 1, 2014 at 10:04 AM (3 years ago)

    This drip drip drip water torture is killing me. Gold will never go up until we wash out all these longs. Wait a second I am long :)

    We need a flush out on high volume maybe all the way down to $1260.

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 10:14 AM (3 years ago)

      And we avoided the first $70 of the move down (and profited on the short side of it). Those long from the top must be going mad.

  4. David Akridge
    April 1, 2014 at 11:18 AM (3 years ago)

    It was interesting Edelson reco’d NUGT this morning with a stop of POG at $1,278 at close. We’ll see if he’s right and we get a bounce from here. Glad I’m heavy DUST since the close yesterday. This sector is almost impossible to trade successfully until a trend is established.

    It’s interesting CNBC is hammering on HFT of the SM and completely ignoring manipulation of gold and silver. Gagging at a gnat and swallowing a camel is what my Mom always said about me.

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 11:32 AM (3 years ago)

      It did seem like there was activity at $1278. The trend is definitely down now and the bulls are drowning.

  5. SidMcguire
    April 1, 2014 at 11:31 AM (3 years ago)

    Does it look like the S&P is going to break out?

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 11:39 AM (3 years ago)

      It has a lot of fractal energy from the sideways consolidation, so it could go either way and go that way strongly. Right now there is a momentum divergence but that could also change.

  6. ALEX
    April 1, 2014 at 11:34 AM (3 years ago)

    Off topic if I may-

    ETF $URA and uranium stocks have nice reversals from very oversold positions, but stocks are still in uptrend and again above 50sma (URZ,CCJ, DNN, URG for example). Maybe just another trading opp while waiting for the short in $gold?

    Thx 4 your work , Steve!


  7. SidMcguire
    April 1, 2014 at 11:41 AM (3 years ago)

    S&P momentum divergence bullish or bearish?

    • Steve Chapman
      April 1, 2014 at 11:45 AM (3 years ago)

      It’s either consolidating for another leg higher or it is weak and these new highs will not hold. Too early to tell because the price action has been so slow.