Subscriber Update 3.28.2014

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Good trading all.

Steve Chapman, TRI

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15 comments on Subscriber Update 3.28.2014

  1. Rahul Banta
    March 28, 2014 at 11:40 AM (3 years ago)

    WOW!!! Bold, but this makes sense. It might be my own bias but I see lots and lots of people setting up to short. Denying them this satisfaction would be what the market does best. And it can’t just follow from the same playbook of 2012/2013.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 11:41 AM (3 years ago)

      I agree. Something bullish has to unfold for the bearish to unfold.

  2. kewl2
    March 28, 2014 at 11:42 AM (3 years ago)

    Will you be buying “something gold related” then prior to close?

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 11:45 AM (3 years ago)

      Not until we get some more confirmation.

  3. elgin
    March 28, 2014 at 11:52 AM (3 years ago)

    I think you might be right on this. Strange NUGT showing strength today when gold is not even up that much.

  4. Rahul Banta
    March 28, 2014 at 11:54 AM (3 years ago)

    This could also dovetail nicely with a month or so of an extended equity sell off. Again, lots and lots of folks (me to) looking to get long after bit more downside. If this turns out not to be the case, would help propel money back into PM sector for a bit.

  5. lenny
    March 28, 2014 at 12:10 PM (3 years ago)

    Thanks for the broader scenario. Having several different subscriptions I find it can be difficult to get a clear read on the sentiment of mainstream thinking… To step out of the box and look at things from the outside.

  6. Dutchisu
    March 28, 2014 at 12:11 PM (3 years ago)

    Very intriguing scenario you layout. It would be nice if you are right as I am long but I think a very strong 2nd wave rally would also do the trick. Plus I think your “ICL just occurred theory” in not very probable. If we just experienced the ICL it would be the least oversold ICL in the last 5 years. (See gold weekly chart below)$GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=10&dy=0&id=p92000501513&a=324455047

    Personally I think the current setup looks and feels similar to November 2011. I am therefore looking for a short rally that retraced 61.8% of the recent decline before we roll over again.

    No matter which scenario is correct I can make money with proper risk management and if I maintain flexibility in my views.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 12:24 PM (3 years ago)

      That is the obvious one but it seems like everyone is looking for it. I just wanted to show something else as a possibility.

    March 28, 2014 at 12:29 PM (3 years ago)

    Question: Is this last decline in NUGT over the last couple of minutes significant in any way? Is it just noise or is there an accepted explanation of what is likely causing it. Thanks.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 12:58 PM (3 years ago)

      There is always a lot of volatility at the close. It gets arbitraged away.

  8. Dutchisu
    March 28, 2014 at 2:54 PM (3 years ago)

    From an Elliot wave perspective one thing that doesn’t line up is that wave 4 should of been corrective. The recent decline seemed very impulsive to me and counted very well as 5 waves to the downside.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 6:36 PM (3 years ago)

      The entire intermediate cycle has been strange IMO. It is just weird to have everyone looking for a decline after the next weak bounce and then have it come to fruition.

  9. Bob Kudla
    March 28, 2014 at 5:33 PM (3 years ago)

    As you know, I went long GLD diagonal calls for the reason you described, this morning at the open. I am in the deflation scare camp through May/June.

    • David Akridge
      March 29, 2014 at 8:38 AM (3 years ago)

      Steve, makes sense to me. If POG falls below your current $1,285 stop for the 10% positions, would you rethink the whipsaw action you describe above? Also, could you elaborate a bit on how you determined POG possibly moving up to $1,392 before falling in earnest? That’s when we short, correct? Thanks, Steve.