Emerging

Whale Breach 2_ProResHQ

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Good trading all.

Steve Chapman, TRI


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13 comments on Emerging

  1. Tim Widmeyer
    March 28, 2014 at 5:28 AM (8 months ago)

    STEVE
    Now that copper is back above $3.00 and back in its triangle, do you think it will keep going up and that was just a fake breakdown. Shares in FCX seem to be pointing to a new leg up also.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 6:01 AM (8 months ago)

      I think it will have a very convincing rally to the upside, but I also think that was a major technical breakdown in the big picture.

  2. SidMcguire
    March 28, 2014 at 6:19 AM (8 months ago)

    Does this look like the beginning of a real bounce in PMs? Or is it still to early to tell?

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 6:22 AM (8 months ago)

      It definitely does, and it could be the 3rd daily cycle low. We are getting some impulsive moves this morning, and I want to add but if it is countertrend then it will be more dangerous. I don’t want to put everyone through the pain of the last two days with an even bigger position than we already have unless you are comfortable with it.

      It seems like everyone wants to short a bounce and I don’t know how this is going to resolve. That won’t happen easily.

  3. Edward Bernhart
    March 28, 2014 at 6:39 AM (8 months ago)

    Steve, Please know that most of us trust your instincts and are big enough to “suck it up.” Your advise is not by consensus.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 6:59 AM (8 months ago)

      I understand, but the strength of this move down exceeded my expectations and the Bollinger Bands expanded beyond the uptrend from Jan & Feb signaling that the bears are in control. It has felt like a lot of longs were really caught on the wrong side of the market over the last few days and they have either been liquidating or getting margin called. That is not the ideal environment to be trying to hit a home run on the long side because price now has significant momentum to the downside. I am just being a little more conservative because there is the risk that a Wave 3 down could start at any point in the next few weeks and that move should be much stronger to the downside than the one we just saw…it is the kind of move that destroys accounts like Sept 2012 – June 2013.

  4. Steve Chapman
    March 28, 2014 at 6:42 AM (8 months ago)

    The market won’t just let everybody short an easy bounce into resistance now that everybody is looking for it after getting burned during the last intermediate cycle on the big spike up day. If this is a Wave 2 then it should be an A-B-C, so we could get a weak bounce (A) that rolls over to sucker in the shorts (B) and then we get a stronger bounce higher (C). I’m open to numerous scenarios right now but I don’t want to be playing it with a huge position.

  5. anicca
    March 28, 2014 at 7:09 AM (8 months ago)

    Yen is still so weak. It has to bounce before we get a real move.

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 7:11 AM (8 months ago)

      I haven’t liked that either. This entire market is on edge right now.

  6. Ms C
    March 28, 2014 at 9:17 AM (8 months ago)

    Steve, are you buying EEM today ?

    • Steve Chapman
      March 28, 2014 at 11:40 AM (8 months ago)

      I don’t like the gap up and what is going on in US Stocks. They aren’t necessarily correlated but I am uncomfortable with the candle today.

  7. Dutchisu
    March 28, 2014 at 10:39 AM (8 months ago)

    Steve

    I was a starting to get worried about our NUGT and UGLD position until I went to lunch today and heard a radio ad for Lear Capital. They said gold would go over $2000 this year and that Silver would go over $50. :)

    To me there is no clearer indication, than these ads, that we are a long way from reaching the long term bottom in gold.

  8. Pablo
    March 28, 2014 at 10:43 AM (8 months ago)

    what do you see brewing, stay in gold or get out? might not be around end of day…